This week we went from “surely that can’t be true” to “oh… that’s actually happening”. We’re fact checking the legendary pig orgasm, getting weirdly hopeful about placebo pills that work even when you’re told they’re fake, and looking at research that points a finger at the iPhone era for a chunk of the fertility slide.
Then we’re back on humanity’s favourite hobby, trying to control the weather, now rebranded as “weather jiu jitsu”. We finish with a satellite reality check, because apparently we’re speed running our way to a sky full of moving dots.
Pigs and Their World Record Orgasms
It started with a magazine article promising “the 10 most surprising lessons about orgasms”, which is exactly the sort of headline that makes us pretend we’re reading it for science. Buried in the list was the classic claim that pigs hold the Guinness World Record for the longest orgasm. These lasted up to 30 minutes...
Once you go looking for the evidence, the 30 minute version starts to look like a myth that got repeated too many times. What we can find support for is the ejaculation time, which is still impressive and, frankly, unnecessary.
Practical guides and animal science sources put the process in the five to ten minute range. The volume is also enormous, which raises questions we did not need answered today.
So yes, pigs are doing a lot, for a long time, but the half hour orgasm story does not seem to survive contact with the paperwork. Our main takeaway is that Guinness facts are worth checking before we repeat them on a science podcast.
The Placebo Effect, Now With Extra Placebo
We also found a placebo study that is equal parts fascinating and annoying, because it reminds us how easily the human brain can be nudged. Researchers looked at whether placebos could influence abilities that tend to decline with age, including cognitive performance and physical function.
They used three groups: a control group with no pills, a deceptive placebo group told they were getting an active pill, and an open placebo group told plainly that the pills were placebos. Everyone was tested before and after a few weeks.
Both placebo groups improved compared to the control group. The part that really breaks your brain is that the open placebo group, the people who knew they were taking a fake pill, often improved the most.
Physical performance lifted, cognitive scores rose across multiple tests, and stress levels dropped. All of that happened even though the pill itself was doing nothing.
It’s a reminder that placebo effects are not just “being tricked”. Expectation, attention, routine, and meaning can do real work in the body.
The iPhone Effect: A Fertility Drop With a Timestamp
Then we moved from pig biology to human babies, which is a sentence we did not expect to write today. A study looking at US fertility rates points to a striking pattern since 2007, with a reported 22% drop in the general fertility rate.
The researchers argue the timing lines up with the arrival and spread of the iPhone. Early iPhone access depended on AT&T coverage, so they compared birth rates across counties that got access earlier versus later.
Their claim is that iPhone access reduced births, with measurable effects in younger age groups and continued declines later on as well. They also argue the diffusion of the iPhone could explain a surprisingly large share of the overall decline.
To be clear, this is not a claim that phones directly change fertility in a biological sense. The more plausible story is that smartphones changed the social environment quickly and at scale.
They changed how people meet, how often they see each other, and how dating works. They also changed how much time gets swallowed by screens, which is not nothing when you’re trying to build a life with another human.
Weather Jiu Jitsu: The Zombie Idea Returns
We also revisited one of science’s most stubborn zombie ideas: controlling the weather. Humans have been trying to bully the atmosphere into behaving for a long time, and the idea keeps coming back with new branding.
The new twist is “weather jiu jitsu”. Instead of trying to overpower a storm, the idea is to exploit the chaotic sensitivity of the atmosphere.
In theory, small, precisely timed nudges, guided by modern modelling, could shift the trajectory or intensity of extreme events. The pitch is that a nudge applied days before peak impact might move a hurricane away from a major city, weaken a cold extreme, or reduce moisture transport.
For now, this mostly lives in the world of modelling, not the world of “we did it and it worked”. It also runs into the obvious moral problem that weather does not disappear, it relocates.
If we nudge a storm away from one place, it goes somewhere else. That turns “saving” into “choosing”, which is a much harder conversation than the word jiu jitsu suggests.
A Sky Full of Satellites, and What It Does to the Night
Finally, a public service announcement that starts with a number and ends with a mild panic. There are roughly 14,000 satellites up there already, and more have been launched since 2019 than in the 60 years before that.
The European Southern Observatory is warning we are heading into a new era of satellite density. There are proposals and plans that could push the total far higher in the coming years.
Their modelling suggests that in some places, for a large fraction of the night, you could have hundreds to thousands of satellites visible. That is in the same ballpark as the number of stars you can see with the naked eye under good conditions.
The problem is not just more moving dots. Satellites reflect sunlight, create streaks and glow, and make it harder to see what’s behind them.
For astronomers, it’s a practical nightmare. For everyone else, it’s a cultural shift we have not really consented to.
There are attempts to reduce reflectivity with darker coatings, and people are talking about ultra black materials. But the bigger issue is scale, and there is no global governance system that can easily say “enough”.
It was a BIG week
A pig fact that collapses under basic verification, a placebo that works even when you’re told it’s fake, a fertility trend that seems to carry the fingerprint of the smartphone era, a weather control idea that keeps coming back, and a satellite boom that could change what we see when we look up.
The connecting thread is smaller than it looks. Tiny nudges, repeated at scale, can reshape behaviour, biology, and even the sky above our heads.
CHAPTERS:
00:00 Wild Orgasm Facts
01:05 Guinness Pig Claim
01:45 Meet the Hosts
03:03 Darwinian Doubts
05:50 Fact Checking Begins
06:08 Boar Taint Explained
07:37 Collecting Semen Methods
10:33 Four Ejaculation Phases
11:44 Verdict and Takeaways
12:42 iPhone Baby Bust
14:55 How the Study Works
19:00 Placebos and Aging
20:25 Open vs Deceptive Placebo
21:54 Open Placebo Ethics
22:17 Study Design Breakdown
22:43 Results That Shocked
24:16 Why Placebos Work
24:55 Open Placebos Everywhere
27:26 Weather Control Obsession
28:55 Weather Jiu Jitsu Explained
33:17 Nudging Storms Risks
35:50 Satellite Boom Warning
39:19 Night Sky Light Pollution
40:42 Governance and Fixes
42:34 Wrap Up and Contact
SOURCES:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LJNwAKSL17s
https://www.eso.org/public/news/eso2607/
https://journals.plos.org/water/article?id=10.1371/journal.pwat.0000562&ref=404media.co
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0349765&ref=404media.co
https://www.nber.org/papers/w35310
https://www.mdpi.com/2076-2615/10/9/1665
https://apple.news/AtTrEygKCQkCxuXk4Sb6Ojg
-
Rod: [00:00:00] Earlier earlier this week, I was flicking through the BBC Science Focus magazine, and I found an article called "The 10 Most Surprising Lessons About Orgasms From the Experts Who Study Them." And I thought, " Well, I'm curious. 10 things, huh?" So things like this:
people with spinal cord injuries can still experience orgasms 'cause allegedly, the sensory signals from the organs of love can bypass damaged spinal cords, use the vagus nerve, and, um, go straight to the brain's yum-yum centers, apparently.
another one, an orgasm can temporarily relieve pain due to chemicals and stuff. But what I like is, uh, when they were looking at this particular, peptide, a vasoactive intestinal peptide, they said, "Oh, the best we could do if we wanted to try and mimic it, we'd have to give higher doses of morphine to produce an equivalent effect in women."
Didn't mention men. Another one, orgasms can affect your consciousness. It's a whole so I'll punch on, but the bottom line was an orgasm's impact on the brain, can be similar to that of an epileptic fit. Well, that's fun. Then they wander into non-humans, like, uh, animals using sticks and things to create the [00:01:00] pleasures, like female Japanese macaques use sticks, twigs, and stones to stimulate the clitorides.
I think that's plural. And then there was this one:
According to the Guinness Book of World Records, pigs have the longest possible orgasm of any animal, capable of lasting 30 minutes. More specifically, on average, a, this is a quote, "High performance boar can continuously produce semen for between five and seven minutes, resulting in 200 to 250 mils of semen per ejaculate."
So I'm not one to doubt the veracity of the Guinness World Records, but I thought this is a science podcast, so maybe I should double-check this
Will: It's time for a little bit of science. I'm Will Grant, an associate professor in science communication at the Australian National University
Rod: And I'm Rob Lambert, a 30-year sci comm veteran with a mind, as is always apparent,
of a
a 15-year-old boy
Will: And today, as well as orgasming orgasming [00:02:00] pigs, we also have some, if
Rod: you
You have a dollar for every time you've said that
Will: Yeah.
Reasons tech is killing us yet again
Rod: I'm i'm gonna talk again about how I love placebos
Will: I'm gonna count some culture
Rod: we'll talk about the defector
Will: I've got a return of some zombie ideas that, just love coming back.
Rod: Ooh.
Will: I've also got a public service announcement for those, who need it
Rod: Those in the public service
Will: Those...
Yeah, in the public ser- Service
Rod: of the public
Will: Yeah. I, Look, to be honest, I did not know how many times I would, discuss orgasming pigs.
Rod: Didn't you?
Well, once
Will: Well , you know, no, you don't have to discuss every topic once. That's not a requirement of life
Rod: No, it's true. And this, I mean, we'll probably talk about, we'll probably do like nine or 10 follow-ups, obviously
Will: Yeah, no doubt, no doubt.
five to six minutes. Look, I just wanna,
put on my Charles Darwin hat, which I should be hat and beard. Like, it, it should be a hat and beard combination.
Rod: your arm around your cousin in a, in a sinister way.
Will: in a sinister way I feel... It wasn't sinister It was
the times.
Rod: He had the
Will: It was the times You had the intercourse It was the times It was the times.
It were the times?
Rod: the times? It were the times.
Will: It were the times They
Rod: were the times
Will: Thems were the [00:03:00] breaks.
Rod: Yeah, your Darwin hat
Will: Yeah, my Darwin hat and my Darwin beard. what is the evolutionary ben- benefit of five to six to up to 30 minutes worth of orgasm time? It f- I feel like you're vulnerable. Like, I feel like if I'm having 30 minutes of orgasm, I feel like a lion is getting me in that time.
Like a-
Rod: Where are you
having
having this orgasm?
Will: Well, indeed.
Indeed, indeed
Rod: Do you
Will: mean on the Serengeti or?
Rod: Outdoors
Will: Oh In a
Rod: a
Will: field No, it's, past May. We'd be fucking in outdoors again. Like that's the-
Rod: Oh, as
Will: By a zoo ... that's the song. You know? Yeah. I know it's a Northern Hemisphere song. We've got to have a Southern Hemisphere version.
Rod: Before May
Will: Yeah. Well-
Rod: In the forest
Will: Yeah, exactly. any way, 30 minutes, I would feel quite incapacitated, and I feel like a lion would get me in that time. Like-
Rod: I wonder why you'd be
be like a dried out husk.
Will: But it feels dangerous
Rod: It does feel dangerous, but
but
it's not verified yet.
I mean, it
I mean, it was, it was claimed in the, Guiney Journal of Records
Will: No, the Guinness Book of Records is-
Rod: 100%
accurate
Will: Oh, look, I think They would peg themselves in terms of, um,
Rod: They
Will: our- They would peg themselves
[00:04:00] annals of science, well up there with, um, your science and your nature and the,
Rod: would
Will: They would ... Britannica and Wikipedia. They would. No, they, they take their records very seriously.
Rod: It's difficult to get in, but to them
to,
compared to, it compared to the natures and the sciences,
but difficult for
but
reasons.
Will: for different reasons.
Difficult for different reasons. But I,
Rod: I- How many, how many razor blades can you swallow?
Science
doesn't-
Will: I don't think they do that. I think they, they have a veto on, dangerous records
Rod: On self-harms?
Will: Yeah, I think they definitely have a veto on it. They're like, "No, no, we're not, we're not
glorifying dangerous records."
They do things like
Rod: shot in the guts with a cannonball and stuff, don't they? Or is
Or
that the old version?
Will: The old version.
Rod: That's the Old Testament of-
Will: How many cannonballs can you get shot in the guts with? Like, who is more than- One ... Like, we can all get one. Like everyone, everyone is one.
Rod: How long do I have to be alive for afterwards?
Will: Okay. So you're doubting the veracity- I'm like, hmm ... of, the five to six minute or the 30-minute version? 'Cause there seems to be two stories here.
Rod: Yeah. And also straight volume. So there's three things really. There's the five to six minutes
of
ejaculation.
Will: Yeah.
Rod: The volume that
that
comes from it.
I,
Will: I had a second Darwinian question as well.
Rod: Yeah. What's that?
Will: Well, [00:05:00] what is the benefit? Like, I feel like-
Rod: To be really sure ...
Will: I feel like, you know, the key point of ejaculate is to get, the gentlemanly,
Rod: Swimmers
Will: indeed, or, you know, I was gonna go biological. I can't remember what, you know, the, but the, the genetic information- No disease
from, from the mister to the missus, and- They have to be married ... I think so. Pigs definitely are a marrying species. Anyway, but they,
Rod: yeah ...
Will: like,
I feel like in five to six minutes we've, we've gone overkill here.
Rod: Job done.
Will: Indeed. Not
Rod: to mention, I figure some's gonna come bubbling out. It's a lot. Cause humans got like .01
. 01
mils. No, no, it's 10 cc's, like the band. That's why they call themselves 10cc.
10cc.
Will: mil.
Rod: Yeah. Anyway, so-
Will: Did they?
Rod: Yeah.
Will: I didn't know the band.
Rod: No, they were an old, very--
They went
They went straight to elevator music in 60s or '70s,
where 10CC is like, "Ha-ha, ah."
Will: Yeah. Wow. Where- No, I, I think I've heard of them
Rod: where a squirt-- I couldn't tell you a single song.
Doesn't
matter. So I thought, yeah, let's verify. In the, in the interests of science, let's verify. So obviously my first stop
when it
when it comes to animals, my first stop is to go to the journal " Animals."
Ooh,
Will: [00:06:00] Hmm, okay.
Rod: Actual
journal, um, 2020,
" Pork
production with entire males,"
uh, AKA not castrated. Ooh. Colon, "Directions for control of
Colon, "Directions for control of boar taint."
Will: Boar taint is bad.
Rod: Yeah,
I didn't know.
Will: I didn't know.
Rod: As the, I, I, I- I didn't know
Will: that. You didn't?
Rod: No, it's
Will: not bad. Have, have you ever eaten, uh, boar-tainted meat?
Rod: Not that I'm aware of.
Will: It's got this tang. So, so basically boar taint is, you know, it's, it's pig meat, but they've left the boar whole, and so there is, um-
Rod: There's an accumulation of two compounds
Will: what
are the compounds?
Rod: Androstenone. Oh,
Will: I thought you were gonna say it's literally sperm. Like you're, you- No, no, no ... you know, they're, they're backed up all the way into the ham.
Rod: It's just sperm ham. "Would
like sperm ham or, or I'll take it or off.
I'll take or.
I don't care what order
Will: it comes. It's not good. No. Like I, I've, ugh, ew.
Ooh.
Rod: Well, you got your androstenone and
Well, you've got your androstenone and your skatole in the fat of the male pigs.
So
androstenone is a male pheromone produced in the balls.
Will: I thought skatole was a form of jazz.
Rod: The,
that and-
Will: Ah. Yeah ...
Rod: fecally related. Um, so yeah, it gives the, the [00:07:00] meat a bad smell. once the male
pigs
reach puberty, this
happens.
And there's a whole bunch of other stuff about that that I read and was like, "Oh, it either arouses or fails to arouse the female," and on and on it goes. But in this article, which was referred to in the original one, no mention of orgasms, and I thought, "Not good enough."
Will: Okay.
Rod: So
I went diggy ' cause we are a science- No,
Will: indeed
Rod: fact-based, evidence-directed podcast.
Will: Good.
Rod: So I found, after a lot of digging, the verification website, and you're gonna love this. It's from the Queensland Government, subset
Business
Queensland.
Will: I feel like this is, business in Queensland. We're not a-- Actually, I didn't know they were a big pig pr-producing state, but we are a thorough state.
Rod: No, I said, yeah, exactly. No, I said big pigs
or
me.
So
you're familiar with the website, of course, being a Queenslander. Mm-hmm.
Will: Mm-hmm.
Rod: Business Queensland. And the handy article I came across was called " Collecting Boar Semen."
Mm-hmm.
So we're getting
methods part
into the methods part of the, of the study.
Will: Oh, please. Oh, geez.
Rod: Well, you
need to know that-- You need to know
need to know the, you about how we get to the end to see if Guinness was wrong.
Will: Oh, do we, do we need to?
Rod: Yeah.
Will: can we give like a timestamp here that listeners can skip ahead a, a little bit here?
Rod: Okay. Hang on. I'll, I'll click my time.
Will: Can I skip ahead? No. Oh. No, you're obliged. You signed up. Oh, Jesus. This is important. This is methods. So I had to rearrange it 'cause they didn't quite, they gave me the order- You know- ... of the methods
Rod: No. you're obliged. You signed up. [00:08:00] Oh, geez. This is important. This is methods. So I had to rearrange it 'cause They gave you the order-
Will: Do you know- ...
Rod: of the
Will: I, I'm just gonna pause for a second. Mm. And you have never gotten around to watching Clarkson's Farm, and you would bloody love it 'cause it's bloody great TV. I get there. and you know that when Amazon starts scratching the barrel for, "Oh, what else, what scenario can we get Clarkson to do?" You know that this is coming.
Rod: " coming?
It is coming. So it begins, "When you're collecting boar semen, you want to be in a shady, draft-free environment."
Will: Mm.
Rod: So that's fair.
When it comes to the receptacle, it needs to be about 34 degrees, dry, an insulated
flask."
Will: Okay. Well, yeah, you don't want the temperature to drop too much, you know. No, no. You gotta keep the, the efficacy.
Rod: You do. Because also if, you need to avoid ultraviolet light and sudden temperature changes, 'cause that can make your boar semen deteriorate.
Will: Okay.
Rod: So that means, like we would've done, don't get out the blacklight to see how shiny boar semen is
the, you know,
under the,
hunting
evidence hunting light, 'cause you might fuck it up. Now, you've
you've
got that sorted.
Will: Yeah.
Rod: Make sure you have your adjustable dummy sow ready to go.
Will: Adjustable dummy sow. Oh,
Rod: dummy sow. Oh, yeah
Will: yeah. They're available on lovehoney.com.
I, uh, no they're not. I hope they're not. [00:09:00] Oh my God. Oh, dear.
Rod: are
Will: On the Queensland Government website. Oh, oh. I mean, of course they're available somewhere, but wow.
Rod: Like the, the intern, "Can you put links to the equipment?" "Yes, sir."
Not
that link.
Will: you're not even gonna go into the adjustable du-dummy sow?
Rod: No, there's so much more to
Will: talk about. Okay.
Rod: just giving you the, suitable for work version.
Will: Mm-hmm.
Rod: Depends where you to minimize irritation to the boar and disruption to the process, the long hairs around the boar's prepuce should be clipped.
Will: Oh, indeed.
Rod: So Brazilian your boar.
Will: Really?
Rod: Mm.
Will: I mean, they had many years of evolution when their pubes weren't clipped.
Rod: Yes.
Will: I, I feel like-
Rod: But this is science.
Will: Sure.
Rod: Slash business.
Will: Sure. I feel like someone is a, is a neat freak who's got involved. They're like-
Rod: If I
If I have to do this-
Will: Yeah,
Yeah,
tidy it up a bit. Come on ...
Rod: pubes out of the way, Louise.
Come on, it's gross. okay, let's talk gloves.
Will: Indeed. The big ones. The long The
Rod: A lot. Big ones. The
thick ones. The ones that make my arms fall
Will: asleep. I want, I want, I want the, like the Chernobyl gloves. I want the- Yeah ... I'm reaching through a wall here. I'm- Like
Rod: rhino hide and
Will: three mills of leather. You will feel nothing.
Rod: Yeah.
So they should be [00:10:00] polyvinyl, not latex. They stress not latex. Okay. I don't know why. It might be because boars aren't into that kind of kink. So the person collecting should grasp the spiral end of the penis with their gloved hand
Will: Spiral end
Rod: They are spiral end
Will: I, I knew that
Rod: Yeah, you did. And you should allow the boar to thrust a few times before you apply pressure. The pressure caused by the clenched hand
imitates
estrous sow's cervix and stimulates ejaculation.
Note here, some boars prefer more pressure than others
Will: Oh, wow
Rod: Which apparently becomes obvious with experience
Will: Indeed it does
Rod: So you know what kind of
Will: boar- Yeah ... you're
Rod: dealing
Will: with Yeah
Rod: Is
it Big Eric or is it Small Steve?
Will: Yeah.
Rod: The ejaculation process, there are four phases, which is amazing, and it takes five to 10 minutes.
So we're getting into this time thing. and we're kind of verifying the five to 10 minute-
Will: Okay.
Rod: Yeah ... ejaculate here. So phase one is the pre-sperm thing.
consists of clear
It consists of clear seminal fluid, some gel, some dead sperm cells, and it's heavily contaminated with bacteria. Don't collect this
Will: Okay. No good.
No good No Some gel
Rod: Gel. Yeah, they say gel, and it's- Some gel
I'm like,
one of these I'm like, "I don't think I wanna a- Phase two, sperm-rich fraction is around 50 mils.
Will: All right. Wow
Rod: [00:11:00] And that's only phase two of four. And if you're curious, it's, uh, creamy white in color and contains the greatest density of
of
sperm.
You should collect it in a pre-warmed thermos or cup
Will: Indeed
Rod: Pre-warmed 'cause-
Will: Yeah, I know, I know
Rod: Phase three is about 80 mils
Will: Okay
Rod: So we're, adding it up here. It's a bit gray, lower density sperm. And your final and fourth phase-
Will: Do we keep that? Do we keep that bit?
Rod: It didn't say
Will: Oh
Rod: I suppose you put it in a separate container just in case
Will: Yeah, sure
Rod: Have coffee afterwards
you've got coffee afterwards or... The, the final stage,
250
mils, up to 250 mils- Oh
mils.
clear seminal plasma and gel.
Again,
you
collect that separately, put it elsewhere and you don't want that. So they also say, " Note the boar should be observed after collection to ensure the penis is fully retracted."
I
don't know why
Will: Or what happens if it's not
Rod: I don't know.
They don't tell me that either. I'm like, " Well, you're just gonna keep watching it still there.
Hang on,
Hang on, hang on. A- and gone." So from this study, my verification study, and this is-
a study,
I learned that there's no suggestion anywhere of a 30-minute orgasm. That might be a little bit-
Will: Okay. That's hyperbolic ...
Rod: a little bit hyperbolic, exactly.
But
exactly.
the five to 10 minute thing seems to be
verified,
[00:12:00] coming for five to 10 minutes.
Will: I also, I mean how often can boars make a baby then? Like it feels-
Rod: Three times a day
Will: Like well, if you have to, if you have to build up 250 mils worth of liquid in you, I, I, I assume it's not instant. Like
Rod: I don't know.
See, I told you there'd be follow-up episodes
Will: Oh, God
Rod: How many times?
But yeah, so 30 minutes, no. The time of ejaculation, yes. And the load, humongous. And my takeaways, there are two. One, call me cynical, but it means that maybe you should maybe check your Guinness Book of Records just to be sure they're not being hyperbolics. And two, until today, I did not have pig wanker on my list of backup jobs in case everything else falls through.
But now
I'm gonna put it on Seek. What else could you do? You want to wank
wank pigs.
You're welcome.
Will: You are too, listener. Hey, I've got some baby news for you as well then.
Rod: Congratulations.
Will: No, I've got a, I've got a story for you about how, Steve Jobs is ruining the world. Uh-
Well,
yeah, still, From beyond the grave. From beyond the grave. No, so there's a global crisis, and it depends on your [00:13:00] way of approaching this, of human babies.
Rod: Human
Will: Human babies. Human babies. Like there's, people out there that are like, "We are hitting a fertility crisis."
Rod: So we've got too many.
Will: That... No, not enough. Oh. So that's, that's the old crisis, too many babies. Now the people are saying, "Not enough babies." Now, I don't ha- actually have a dog in the fight of how many babies there should be. maybe I could, but that's not the point of this story. But, we know that we've had a slide in human babies
Mm-hmm ... over
the, you know, the last 30 or 40 years around the world.
Yep. We've had a lot, y- you get a lot of, lot, a lot fewer numbers of human babies per woman. That's the standard way of counting.
Rod: BPW.
Will: Babies per woman. Yeah.
Rod: Yeah.
Will: I think so. I think so.
so.
Rod: Mm-hmm.
Will: but actually, the interesting thing about this study is that, uh, there's a more pronounced effect that you can see from a very specific date and-
Rod: Oh, goody
Will: and this is, this is some researchers going, "Oh no, w- Can't wait "Oh no, we can blame Steve Jobs. Steve Jobs did this to us." So the US general fertility rate, and here this study is looking at the US, but is a lot of parallels to this research all around the [00:14:00] world. the US general fertility rate has fallen by 22% since 2007.
There's a bunch of theories of what ha- And, and, can see there's a graph of US fertility it sort of tracks along pretty static. you know, at,
at
at whatever level, it doesn't matter. But you hit 2007,
You hit 2007- Clear
and there is a peak, and since that point has gone down. Now-
Rod: Yeah ...
Will: there's been a bunch of people that said, "Oh, that's the global financial crisis."
Mm-hmm. "Or maybe it's increased conce- contraceptive use," or, you know, "No one can get a house, so no one can have a baby," or childcare costs or a bunch of other things. Mm.
Rod: Mm.
Will: Uh-
but- Or- ... but these researchers are publishing in the, um, oh, no, I don't have the-- It's the National Bureau of Economic Relations. Doesn't really matter.
Rod: The Journal
Will: The Journal of Research. And this actually comes out of, comes out of an undergraduate research project. Yeah. reckon, no. Y- you can, you can point to a solid amount is literally the iPhone. not even blaming other phones, not even blaming social media- Yeah ... not, not even blaming anything else.
So- Yeah ... what they did, so their argument is that the US rollout of the iPhone, [00:15:00] which was the first modern smartphone, happened- Oh, yeah ... from June 2007 through to February 2011, when it was only on AT&T. Oh, yeah,
Rod: Oh,
yeah, yeah.
Will: And so what they've done is they've looked at birth rates in different areas where there is AT&T coverage and not
AT&T coverage.
AT&T coverage.
Rod: Fabulous.
Will: And then they've tracked the decline in the birth rates. Yeah. And then they've done this, entropy balance Poisson and synthetic difference-in-difference event studies.
Rod: That would be my guess.
Will: They imply access to the iPhone reduced births by 4.5 to 8% at ages 15 to
Rod: 19. Well,
Will: good. And well,
it is.
And
indeed.
Indeed. And many would say- It's a growth ... and many would say good,
would say good,
but then later on at, uh, at later ages, you're still getting significant declines. And what they're doing, so
Rod: went on births, not
b- So they went on births, not
Will: pregnancies? Uh, yes, births.
births
Rod: Well,
Well, it's probably easier to track the pregnancies.
Will: Well, yeah. They're, they're, they're an easy one.
but basically what they're, doing is looking at areas literally where you could get the iPhone and where you couldn't get the iPhone.
Rod: awesome
Will: interesting. And, uh, and this is [00:16:00] like down to the county level sort of thing. Yeah, yeah. And, and you can show... Oh, no. The- Counties ... the counties where they could get the iPhone, because it's only in
only
AT&T areas- Yeah
they had a sooner decline in this birth rate, and then when they got the iPhone later, they had the decline later.
Rod: I might enjoy
you come into
Going to bed. No
Will: Well, that's- Well, go on ... but that's the thing. I mean, so then they're like, "Okay, overall, the diffusion of the iPhone explains," and this is a shocking percentage here-
Rod: Yeah
Will: 33
to 52% of the decline in general fertility. Fabulous. Like, like that is wild. Wow ... you know, demographers are like, "No, normally we look at like, you know,
know, we
to 5% sorts of things," and that's like housing and, and, you know? And so being able to point to a decline and, and saying, "No, it's suddenly they all got these smartphones."
And so they're like, "Okay, is it because they've reduced in-person interaction, increased p*rnography use?" and well, reducing sexual frequency obviously would be the birth... that's not a cause. But- No, no ... but I'm just, I'm just sort of blown away that you could point to a [00:17:00] county-by-county and area-by-area sort of mapping- Yeah.
ah
say, " Oh, no, when the iPhone came in, that's when a decline started to happen." Now-
Rod: Unless there's a hidden code
that we just can't see.
Will: Oh. I mean,
Rod: that seems pretty unlikely ...
Will: oh, what could it be? I mean, obviously, I mean, the, the iPhone unlocked a bunch of other things. iPhone and then smartphones unlocked, you know, potential increased p*rn use, increased social media, further disconnections from people.
Yeah. But you can, you can literally track it to, like, moments as it rolls across the US, you can see the start of this decline in fertility. Now-
Rod: I can't, just from being mesmerized, like I remember I went to... Just before
when
the iPhone, when the iPod Touch came out.
Will: It
Rod: had just been announced, and we couldn't get any in Australia, and I was coincidentally on a work trip to-
Will: No, it
Rod: was huge
Honolulu. And I got one, and I looked at it, and I remember I was texting on my actual phone to my wife going, "This is just so lickable."
Everything
about it, I just look at it and I just wanna lick this thing because it's just so delicious.
Will: But I remember it being called- And
Rod: it wasn't even a phone ...
Will: it was the Jesus phone.
Like, like everyone knew it was coming, and it's like, like Steve Jobs announces the... That's the Onion's headline [00:18:00] for it. The Jesus phone. Like, but, but it's fascinating. like- I, I really do think that smartphones and the internet and social, you know, it's a bundle of technologies- Yeah
have done huge things to society. We all know that. But to be able to point so precisely-
Rod: device ...
Will: to-
Yeah ... you know, these sort of broad historical trends that- Yeah, yeah, yeah ... you know, changing birth rate. You know, normally we say, okay, we need to, you know, to change the birth rates in developing world where people are saying, "Okay, there's too many," it, it's like, okay, we need to increase education of women, and that's like a decades long project sort of thing.
It's like, no, you could just give them all iPhones.
Rod: and go. Have
Will: Let me sell this shit. Have one of these. So I don't, I don't know what to do with that, but wow. Wow.
Rod: I think it's great. I, I love it when these sorts of things are actually pretty damn clear. Yeah. Part of me-
pretty damn clear.
Will: Yeah ... there's
Rod: a part of me,
There's a part of me, a
percentage says, look, maybe it's something that's unrelated.
Will: Look, I'm sure demographers would say, "No, that's undergraduate research." so inherently... Uh, no, demographers love their undergrads too. But anyway, anyway, blows my mind.
Rod: [00:19:00] Do you like placebos? Are you a fan of placebos? I mean, I think they're interesting
Will: Uh, the '90s band?
Rod: Yep.
Will: love them. No, I-- no, of course I love placebos
Rod: The
That band called The
Will: Placebos The Placebos. No, they weren't We
Rod: are The Placebos
of course I love a
Will: I, I... No, of course I love a placebo. if it helps me and, you know, I'll take a little sugar pill if it, it, increases my whatever.
Rod: whatever. Just take-
Will: Yeah ...
Rod: you roll the dice. Yeah. What does this sugar pill do?
Will: Some sort of whatever. You know, who cares? A random placebo I
Rod: think they're fascinating. Placebos,
Placebos,
nocebos,
nocebos,
they fascinate me and they always have
Will: Yeah
you know, I think it's such an interesting, psychocultural, uh, phenomenon, psychosociological sort of phenomenon.
I,
I really, you know, explaining them, having a full account of the placebo- Yeah ... that is, you know, that's gonna- It's fascinating ... that's gonna be a fascinating work of science
Rod: and I wish we were better at them because, this is one reason. so a recent study from University of, the Uni- Università Cattolica in Milan, so three authors.
they say there's an established line of research in which we analyze the role of the mind in the aging process
But until now, they say, no research has investigated whether a [00:20:00] traditional placebo could influence abilities that naturally decline with age
age.
Will: Wait, wait, slow down.
wait, slow down. So okay. So aging and the mind, where is the placebo here?
Rod: Oh, we'll get to that
Will: Okay
Rod: This is
what they're saying. Like no one's really looked into can a placebo have an influence on the way, you know, cognitive decline, physical decline, et cetera-
Will: Okay
Rod: Okay
w- with older folk
Will: Okay. So this is a cognitive decline sort of thing And
Rod: physical. They're talking about- Yeah
physical and cognitive measured in a number of ways. And this study, they, say it's pretty special because they had two kinds of placebo. They had one they called an
an
open placebo, which is where the recipient is told, "This is a placebo"
Will: Okay. Yeah, no, I think that's good. You gotta, you gotta do that
Rod: Fake one, or the deceptive placebo is, "This is a pill-"
pill.
Will: But
Rod: it's-
good for you,"
Will: This is general anti-aging?
Rod: Yeah, yeah. This is g- and both of them are the same non-interactive, non-invasive- Yeah,
Will: they're not doing anything
Rod: Um, and then you've got your control group. So there are three groups
Will: And, and the control group not doing anything, anything. No, nothing They get nothing.
So there, we're not testing this against an actual medicine here. No We're just testing- Yeah ... placebo, placebo, and nothing[00:21:00]
Rod: Hence the
Will: Yeah.
Rod: Quite bare.
Will: Um- It's, it's gotta be the cheapest form of medical trial
Rod: It really does look
Will: like- Like
Rod: What are you
give them?
giving? I don't know. What have you f- what have you got
over? Oh.
Will: in the drawer?
Rod: Some flour. Yeah. Tic Tacs. and they wanted to look at psychological, cognitive, and physical functions in older adults who are living out in the world, so not in homes, et cetera.
Will: Yeah.
Rod: They're literally seeing if the benefits of giving these people pills and saying, "This is a placebo," differs from not a placebo, et cetera.
Which so far I'm like, cool, very curious. So they got 90 healthy older adults and broke them into the three groups: no treatment, deceptive placebo, and open placebo.
Will: Yep.
Rod: So the deceptive, they were basically, they were given the pill and told they contained active ingredients designed to improve wellbeing and physical function.
Will: Yep. "
Rod: This pill will help you with that." The open one, they gave them the same inactive pills,
but
but they said, " these pills are a placebo." And here's the
bit I'm like,
bit I'm like, "Eh," they added, " That could still trigger beneficial mind-body responses." Okay. And you're like, hang on.
Will: Yeah. Yeah. I, I, I, Look, I haven't done one of these studies, but I assume y- there should be language around which you say, [00:22:00] you know, there's no active thing-
Rod: Mm
Will: but maybe you might get a placebo effect. You know, you could, you could, you could say something like that that says- Sort of ... placebo is a known thing- Yeah ... but not, not based on activity.
Rod: But I'm like, yeah, but I think they should've just said, " These are placebos." But
But
I suppose they have to kind of
hint
at them making you feel that what they're gunning for.
So three different groups. Before the study period, there was a bunch of questionnaires about perceived levels of stress, psychological wellbeing,
sleepiness,
fatigue, optimism, self-efficacy, stereotypes about aging, a
a
battery of stuff, and also what they called objective measures of short-term memory, selective attention, physical performance, et cetera.
So it was before study period.
Then
you had three weeks of study period, so pill- Mm-hmm ... pill, no pill. Same tests again to look for changes. So they said both placebo groups experienced
gains
in cognitive and physical performance over the control group.
Will: Wow.
Rod: So both groups better than control.
Will: Yeah. So even when they were told-
Rod: Yeah
Will: this is a placebo.
Rod: Yeah.
Will: Yeah.
Rod: Did better Let's get more specific. So physical performance, the deceptive placebo [00:23:00] group, so the ones who weren't told it was a placebo,
they
overall in physical performance, 7% better as measured by measures.
Will: Yeah.
Rod: The open placebo group, 9.2% better.
Will: They did even better.
Rod: Even better, which is apparently it's statistically significant- We,
Will: w- we tell you it's a placebo and like- "
Rod: Have this bullshit that won't make you any better.
I feel even better than they do." So that's physical. Cognitive performance scores, there's a bunch of different tests, so there's a range of scores. Deceptive placebo group, normal.
They
increased by between 13, between 13 and 15% across the different tests. The open placebo, the people who were told, between 7 and 22% increases.
Will: Wow.
Rod: You're like, "What the fuck?" And stress levels in general, open placebo had lower stress levels than both other groups
Will: This is weird
Rod: Isn't it?
Strongest improvements were generally seen among people who knew they were taking a placebo.
Will: That's so cool.
Rod: It's fucking wild. So the researchers are like, "These are significant effects."
It's comparable, this is-- I love this, comparable to those seen in some experimental studies on physical activity and effects on physical [00:24:00] performance and cognitive training- Wow ... particularly memory. So sometimes the open placebo in particular did better than actual interventions
What the
Will: is the nothing, this is the nothing pill.
It will do nothing. Oh, it did for me. It
Rod: did
Will: a lot. Bloody, bloody great.
Rod: There's a whole lot of nothing, and I'll take some more.
Like, it's just- Oh
Will: It's
Rod: mind-blowing.
mind-blowing.
Will: are so broken. Like, like- Yeah, I know ... just, you know, flipping to an entirely different world, you know, the, the whole world of economics is based, you know, the big debate is between the rational human- Yeah
you know, we make rational decisions and, you know- And actual people ... and actual people. And oh my God, we are so far from rational as a species. Like you can literally-
Rod: harnessing
that ...
Will: you ask, you can literally say to someone, "This will do nothing," and they're like, "Mm."
Rod: But here's what it'll specifically do nothing for, and I got better on
of them. you get
all of
Every other bugger
them.
And who'd you get better than? Every other bugger in this town.
Will: This is... But that is, I mean, what the hell?
What the hell?
Rod: I know. And, and for me, I'm like, great. Whatever it is, I don't care if
if it's
it's open or deceptive placebo, just do what works.
Will: I wonder if there's, there's... Can, can we use non-placebo? like this is a fake pill.[00:25:00]
Rod: is
Will: Non-placebo is still a
Rod: drug. Well,
Will: no. No, I get that. No, yeah, that's true. No, but can we, can we use open placebos to do other things? Can we say- Probably ... you know, "This will help you, um, have a better, better relationship with your husband or wife." It's a proper- You know, like, it, just, it's a placebo, won't do anything, but my God.
Rod: Here's a pill with no
Yeah, here's a pill with no effects.
Will: Yeah. However- You'll have better work. You'll, you'll, be, you know- You'll feel
Rod: great about yourself ...
Will: you'll get a promotion soon. Take the pill. Yeah. Yeah. Fuck, do that study. Jesus Christ.
Rod: I, I'm guessing you'd like to be a participant.
Will: I can... No. Well, look, I mean, generally, that'd be hilarious.
Rod: Yeah. I, I, I think it's fascinating. Like, like I said, they've always fascinated me.
me.
That, and also culture-bound syndrome.
Will: Yeah. No, it's clearly, it's clearly a relationship to a culture-bound syndrome.
Rod: And I, um-
no,
I'm just saying similar idea.
Will: Placebo, yeah, similar idea. Placebos are uni, universal, aren't they?
Like they happen, they work in every culture.
Rod: I believe there's
variance.
Will: Yeah.
Rod: There's... Yeah,
Will: Well, that's, that's a question
that's a question
for, uh, Without Notice
Rod: For the next 50 other episodes.
Will: Yeah.
Rod: The thing that I found interesting, so for me it's like I don't care whether it's a deceptive or an
open placebo if it, open placebo if it-- both of them in many cases have [00:26:00] made things better.
So great. but what the research has reminded me of is that, it's
the
ethical,
angle on actually telling people they're getting a placebo as well is obviously more potent. It's much more-
Yeah
Will: Yeah ...
Rod: we're not even bullshitting you here.
Will: Yeah.
Rod: But
for me, I'm like, I didn't really care until then when I was like, "Oh, yeah, good point."
So actually saying, "This is horseshit. Anyway, you're gonna feel better or you might feel better anyway," and, and you just bloody do, which I think is wild. It just, it breaks my brain. Yeah. It just breaks my brain.
Will: No, that's-
Rod: We should be better at this. What we're really great at is nocebos. We're great at making ourselves sick with our brains, but-
Will: Yeah, that's true
Rod: we
ourselves better
be making
Will: ourselves better with our brains. But it's... I, I, I think, you know, what is the branch of science that really solves the placebo? You know, it's such a-
Rod: a- Place-
Placebology.
Will: No,
you...
yeah. No, but I mean, it's, it's such clearly, cultural, sociological- Yeah ... psychological. The, but there's like medicinal and f- yeah, other, yeah.
Rod: I know. It's, just delightful. That, that's the thing. I bloody love a placebo study. I love a, I love a nocebo.
I love
I love them all. They're fabulous.
And this
one-
kind of
Will: But then, yeah, there is that, you know, it's like the kids getting high when they're not smoking, but their friends are, [00:27:00] and it's like-
Rod: Oh, yeah
Will: We
are a- We
Rod: all had those friends ...
Will: we are a susceptible creature.
Rod: Didn't you
We,
We, we fucked with a few friends. We were like, "Oh, no, this is really strong alcohol." We stole it from our parents' medicine cabinet or whatever, and they got- Medicine ... blind. They got blind. And they're like, "You haven't had anything, you dickhead."
And they're
They got blind. And like, "You haven't had anything, you dickhead."
chundering and carrying on and just, I'm like, " you idiot."
Will: N- I don't know why you would do that. '
Rod: Cause I was a dickhead. I was 12 years old and a bastard. I mean, we We're just curious. We're just naturally inquisitive people
Will: Hey, over a number of years we've, spoken on this, and it's, uh, Four Bears Yeah, Four Bears
Rod: Four bears Yep, all four of them
Will: about some great ideas to change the weather
Rod: Yes.
Will: To-
Yes, we
Rod: have ...
Will: bomb the weather into submission. Yes, we have. So we know that,
uh, going
to the 1890s, Robert St. George Dryanforth- Mm-hmm
Rod: Mm ...
Will: uh,
tried to bomb the weather into submission with cannon,
Rod: Totally
Will: won. not quite. I
Rod: forgot, it's, it's interesting
a
the guy who wants to, like, get rid of rain, for example, is called Dryanforth.
Will: Dryanforth. Indeed, indeed. Dryanforth. Should be Dryanmore. Dryanmore? Okay. but, uh, you know, in the period after, [00:28:00] well, Vietnam War-ish- Mm ... we've talked about that,
Rod: that. Mm. The
Will: period
where, there was a bunch of things that the US tried to do to Vietnam to adjust weather there.
We of course come-
Rod: Four view ...
Will: we come to the first Trump administration where he, did talk about, nuking hurricanes, into submission.
Rod: Everyone knows if there's an overwhelming force, get a more overwhelming force.
Will: It's amazing. It's amazing. This is a freaking zombie idea. It will not die.
Rod: won't, and it's usually small-dicked
It won't, and it's usually small dick men who are like, "Well, what if we-"
what if
Will: Well, well, well, well, I've got a, I've got a slight new twist.
Slight new twist. So in, um, uh, PLOS, a new study-
Rod: Library of Science
Will: Public Library of Science. Public Library of Science. Oh, I was saying that more with, I know it's Public Library of Science, but, they've, they've added a new little flip to this idea. Good. Yeah. Instead of, instead of just using, going straight there with bombs and nukes, they said- We start shouting. No.
Well, no. They... Jiu-jitsu. So this is- Wait,
Rod: what?
Will: Extreme weather events, e.g., droughts, floods, heat waves, and freezes, are increasing in [00:29:00] frequency and intensity. That's climate change, folks. Mm-hmm. Posing severe so-
so-
socioeconomic impacts as growing populations heighten exposure to risks.
Rod: So what we do,
martial
arts style,
style, is we use their energy
is we use their energy
Will: against them.
In, Yes. Jiu-jitsu. We propose supplementing DAST management with literally, this is from the, the abstract and even the title of their paper- Mm-hmm ... with weather jiu-jitsu. Mm-hmm. A strategy that exploits the chaotic sensitivity of mid-latitude atmospheric dynamics to redirect destructive weather trajectories through small, precisely timed perturbations-
Rod: Uh-huh
Will: guided
by finite time
Lyapunov
Lyapunov exponent, FTLE, diagnostics and deep learning forecast models. Okay, so. FTLE,
Rod: FTLE,
faster than a LY.
Will: Yeah, exactly. Faster... Yeah, you can't use the acronym FTL. Like, it's like- No, unless
Rod: you mean faster than LY.
Will: Indeed. Indeed. It never happened, but anyway, that's what you should be. So what they've done, they got the supercomputer out- Mm
and the deep learning machine out, and they've said, "Okay, we've done some experiments
Rod: Mm
Will: the Aurora Deep Learning Earth System [00:30:00] Model and here's another word that triggers me. FTLE,
"FTLE,"
this is their, their model- Yeah ... guided nudges.
but it's like, it, it's a jujitsu nudge.
I guess a jujitsu nudge is like you avoid the fight by flicking the guy like two blocks earlier. You're gonna get mugged, and you sort of, you sort of-
Rod: It's
Will: all done by the little fingers ... no, no you,
Rod: little
Will: if you, if you blow on the guy's ear like five blocks earlier before he's g- Which ear?
Rod: Oh,
kind of blow
Will: that kind of blow.
Yeah, that kind of, yeah. Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah, indeed. Either- It takes time ... ei- either of those 30 minutes if you're- Oh,
Rod: Christ, he
in
blew on my ear. I don't wanna fight him. Oh,
anymore. I'm
Christ. Ow.
Will: Many blocks before, then you've, you've either nudged I think jujitsu is a bit closer than a nudge. But anyway, so,
Rod: be honest, it's more sort of kung fu.
Will: Yeah, exactly. Exactly. But anyway, using the supercomputer,
we can apply a nudge days before peak impact can shift a hurricane to avoid landfall on a major city, weaken the peak intensity of a, blocking-driven cold extreme-
Rod: Obviously
Will: reduce atmospheric [00:31:00] river moisture transport. So this is all- I,
Rod: a feeling I know what the nudges might be. Carry on.
might be, but carry
Will: Look, this is all computer modeling based on stuff that is already underway. So Japan is doing a bunch of stuff, to demonstrate weather modification.
China has the world's largest, China, what a surprise. Yeah. China has the world's largest national weather modification program. they've got- To be
Rod: fair, China has the world's largest moisture field.
Will: Yeah, sure. Exactly. Exactly. Yeah.
large scale cloud seeding, procedures. I think the United Arab Emerence, Emirates also does a bunch of rain enhancement operations, which-
Rod: Then why is it all desert?
Will: Indeed. Indeed. Like I think they have not achieved ...
Rod: We got rain, fuck
Will: it's all mud. Carry on. So, so their argument is, you know what we need to do? Instead of just, you know, willy-nilly firing a cannon at the clouds or dumping a nuke into the hurricane, if you jujitsu it much earlier, you can just do a little bit of a nudge and-
Rod: Can I clarify?
So precisely firing a cannon or...
Will: I-- You know, this is, this is, this is the most- Why is it a nudge? This is the most-
Rod: What is the physical mechanism?
Will: okay, so the physical mechan- [00:32:00] It's, it's stuff like the silver iodide or salt, you know,
Rod: Cloud
Will: seeding ... cloud seeding or the snowy field experiments.
That's another silver iodide one. Or my favorite was, laser lightning control. Okay. Basically, you fire a bunch of lasers to concentrate on a point, and then the lightning all goes for that point, and then I think it nudges things.
Rod: lightning gets mad with other li-
Will: The lightning gets mad with other lightning.
Rod: Oh, God. I- That light is more concentrated.
Let's fuck
Will: with that ... or it, or it uses up its energy on one side of the storm or something, and then it, then it shifts to the right a bit. I, I don't- Go on. so lightning goes to a cloud level focal point created by multiple ground bra- based lasers-
Rod: Does
Will: Hmm ... rather than to the ground, leading to a significant concentration of heating at the focal point So,
Rod: Theoretically
Will: in practice?
No. So well, we know, the lasers and the silver iodide do have effects. Sure. What they're saying, what they're saying is you break out the supercomputer- Yeah ... and you model things early enough in advance, and you do the jujitsu early enough in advance, and you sort of fire, fire the [00:33:00] laser- Whoa
when the-
Rod: Graze
the edge of the forest.
Will: I'm just, I,
Rod: to the
Will: I love, You know, there's a bit of me that says, " Everyone comes up with this idea. What if we could just control... And, there's a bit in me that says, "Well, jujitsu sounds cool for it." You know? Right. It's just like use, use your opponent's strength against him.
Rod: he- here's my question. I'm gonna
many, or comment. Take it as you will. you're on a, have many, or comments. Take it as you will. So you're on a, a, an area on the globe, however big it may be, and a force of weather is coming towards you, and you nudge it left.
It goes somewhere.
Will: Towards New Zealand. Yeah.
Rod: It goes somewhere.
Will: Sorry, New Zealand, you fucking nudge it, you're off, you-
Rod: nudge it again, and it
So
Will: they nudge it again, and it nudges somewhere else
Samoa.
Rod: And then someone else's nudge the other direction, and they come together.
Will: So you're saying, you're saying sacrifice zones, like the world has- That's
Rod: the truth ...
Will: so we gradually nudge everything to the sacrifice zone.
Rod: Yeah. So it's in the Pacific Ocean. Sorry, Nouméa, but your, your history was-
Will: You know, you know, 100%, 100%.
I did love this, diagram. Like, I don't, I don't know if I'd call it a diagram. It's a flowchart. And so they've got like four boxes and a little arrow at the end.
Rod: Well, then you know it's legit.
Will: Yeah indeed, indeed. Box one, [00:34:00] Lorenz theory chaos control.
Rod: Butterfly time.
Will: Yeah, butterfly time. So this is chaos science.
Yeah.
Rod: yep.
Will: box two, DL perturbation experiment. So this is, this is like you're doing some of the lasers or something like that. Mm-hmm. Engineering implementation, easy. evaluation and safeguards, and then the last thing- Result ... weather jujitsu.
Rod: Okay. So here's what I'm hearing. " South Park: Underpants Gnomes."
Will: It really- South Park Underpants Gnomes.
And then we have weather jujitsu. Yeah. I-
Rod: pr-
Stage one, collect profits. Stage two
eh.
Stage-- No, no, sorry. Stage one, collect underpants. Stage two, meh. Stage three, profits.
This is the same thing.
This is the same thing. Stage one,
butterfly
effect. Stage
two,
lasers
shit.
Then shit. Then there's a third stage, and then the fourth stage is beam me up.
Will: I, get why in a science fiction novel you'd go, "Okay, theoretically-" Yeah "... a thing that humans might like to do is control the weather." Hmm. But then, you know, it's this thing, it's people not actually listening to science of how complicated the fucking atmospheric system is. Like, it is just, and, and-
Rod: You nudge it,
it
goes somewhere.
Ind-
It,
Will: indeed.
Rod: It doesn't just nudge and stop.
Unless
you use your lasers-
[00:35:00] to into,
space. You blow it into space. I mean, like, and pe-
Will: you blow it into space. I mean, like, and people- We nudge all hurricanes into space. Into- Yeah. Like, "
Rod: Up your pop." Up your pop.
Will: Up your pop.
Rod: Up you
Will: Off to the moon. Yeah,
Rod: and come back.
Will: Like, it's like-
Rod: And if there's anything good left, bring it
Will: back.
And there, there was one thing. It's like, it only requires 2% of the total energy, and it's like, remember, remember the... Well, of the system. And, and it's like the, the s- Come on ... the...
Rod: on
Will: Re- but remember, the amount of energy in a hurricane or a cyclone is orders of magnitude beyond nuclear weapons. Like these, these, these- Oh, yeah.
They're, they're like
Rod: a seven ...
Will: they, they have shocking amounts- Yeah ... of energy in them, and it's just like, "Well, it only needs 2%." Like-
Rod: 2% of 10 billion megatons-
Will: Yeah, exactly ...
Rod: is a lot.
Will: So it's a zombie idea, and I love that, our friends out there in science are continuing to invest their time in thinking about it.
Rod: Are they scientists or engineers? I mean, it's gonna
Will: They're scientists or engineers. I don't know. Hang on, a little public service announcement. Um-
Rod: Good. Should I stand up?
Will: Well, no. Uh, yes. Should I lie down?
no,
no, not really. No. Under the desk. No, this one, I am just-- I just wanted [00:36:00] to, boost a campaign from the European Southern Observatory. Now, these, these are not the only people to run on this campaign, but they, they've just got, a new study out- Okay
Rod: Oh,
Will: that is really, it highlights something that I was like, "Oh, damn. That is, pretty wild." Mm-hmm. And it is something that we probably as a world should start thinking about.
Rod: Cool, that narrows it down.
Will: So, yeah, I know. There are, Too many satellites, and the number is going wild
Rod: But
as
as I understand it, to be fair, there are only
a
a shit ton too many already
Will: So there's 14,000 roughly- Is that up there. Now, I don't know if-- I don't know if that's how many are, are up there or, you know, some have come or how many have been launched. But- Right ... you know, it's, it's, it's not gonna be wildly off that. Yeah. But more satellites have been launched since 2019 than in the 60 years previous.
Rod: Yes.
Will: So we had 60 years, Sputnik to 2019, and then 2019 to 2026- Starlink and all that ... yeah, in bloody deed. And here's the thing, so there's 14,000 up there. Mm.
Rod: there. Mm-hmm.
Will: but, uh, there are plans out there in the not too distant ho-
[00:37:00] uh,
timeline to go way more,
Rod: Yeah.
Will: A
times as many
Rod: me.
Will: So,
a couple of companies and, and a bunch of others, of course, have plans for, in the horizon, 1.7 million satellites.
Now, I, I just, I, you know- So this
Rod: is, this is kind of an accidental Dyson sphere. If we keep doing that,
doing it,
we're gonna have a fully-
Will: Well- ...
Rod: closed
Will: planet ... well, I, I've come to that. I just... You know, two of the big companies, of course, you know, you, you mentioned SpaceX. Well, you mentioned Starlink.
Yeah. SpaceX's doing a couple of things. One is the Starlink,
internet provision. Yeah.
Rod: Yeah.
Will: which I've got to say is, is of- Far out ... of all of Elon Musk's things, that is a very positive one, bringing internet to- For a lot of people ... places all around the world. Absolutely.
Rod: true.
Will: they've also got plans for space-based data centers, which-
um,
Rod: No,
No, that's
Will: fine. Well, I, you know, I, I'm sort of like the world probably does need data centers. I know there's a big politics around data centers, and maybe putting them in space, you get free cooling.
Rod: I was gonna say
Also they use less water.
Will: Yeah. they've got that.
Rod: Even if they didn't, it's pumping it up.
There's a
Will: bitch. I think there's... I think, I think China might also have some, data [00:38:00] centers going up into space as well. Yeah. It's wild. But, but anyway, there's, they've got, like, a million of those planned. And it's like a million, a million.
Rod: 14,000 is an issue.
issue.
Will: I know. Well, I know. and I'll come to the, the issues in a sec 'cause it's worth saying.
Yeah. But, um, there's also Reflect Orbital, which is a, it's a startup at the moment. Mm. but they have solid plans to launch these mirror satellites to- No, no,
Rod: no, no, no, no, no, no, no. No, no
Not, no
to,
Will: to
beam sunlight down onto
Earth.
Earth.
Rod: No.
Will: so in the, spot where it's beaming, and it won't be huge.
It's not like all of the Earth. Oh, okay. It's like- Then
Rod: it's
Will: fine ... it's only... Like, the spot that it's beaming, it will only be, like, a, few kilometers around, will be four times brighter than the moon.
Rod: That
can be bloody bright
Will: at
can be bloody bright. At f- at full, the full moon. So, so this- That, that's very bright ... that, that is a lot of ex-
Rod: By plane.
Will: Yeah, exactly. And even, even not in that spot, like, if it's in the horizon, it'll be as bright as Venus. But anyway, S- Yeah. You know, satellites-
Rod: Mm.
Will: we know provide a lot of benefit.
Rod: Sure.
Will: Absolutely they do. No question. You know, you know, [00:39:00] monitoring the world and providing communication. It's, they, they, they have done a lot for us.
you know, there's problems with space debris. we've all watched the movie Gravity, and I watched it again recently, and I'm like, "I don't wanna be up in space and get ripped apart by other satellites."
Rod: And suddenly you're Sandra Bullock in her underpants.
Will: Yeah. There's also, We can all just dwell on that for a second Environmental impact of the launches, of course. But, but also this is the European Space Observatory. They're like, "Okay, but, the big one for us if...
Rod: put the big one first."
Will: Light, light pollution." and they, they did this thing.
Rod: Which is better than heavy pollution.
pollution
Will: what they've done, their new study has modeled, what this new satellite regime would look like, and it's, it's, it's mind-blowing.
There would be, in some places, for a large fraction of each night, hundreds of satellites, if not up to several thousand, which is similar to the number of stars seen with the naked eye in good conditions. Jesus. So, so if you- At any point on the
Rod: Earth.
Will: not any point on the Earth, it depends where you are on the planet.
but remember, the satellites want to cover places where people are. So- Yeah ... so on, good conditions, and that [00:40:00] means like you're out camping in the bush- Mm-hmm ... the forest, if you're in a non, non-bush dwelling country- Yeah
Rod: Yep.
Will: you can see a few thousand stars. I think it's up to 10,000 if you're like in a mountain, it's really clear.
Yeah. that's the sort of number you can see with the naked eye. Yeah.
Rod: Yeah.
Will: They're saying, " We're gonna get to a place where you won't see stars, you'll see satellites." You're
Rod: doubling the number of dots. Yeah,
Will: you... No, no, no. Do you-
Rod: Are you blocking them out?
Will: You're blocking them out. Jesus. You're blocking them out.
So, so you would see the dots of the satellites- Yeah ... and they would then have a little, aurora around them that sort of makes it so you won't see the stars behind. So this is, this is literally... You know, astronomers are like, "We wanna see the shit behind. We, we want to shit the... It's gonna be really annoying to us."
Rod: into space, you lazy bastards.
Will: bastards. Indeed. Indeed. Um- Come on ... but, You know, as you were saying, like a human-made Dyson sphere. This is literally- Yeah ... something where, where we're gonna cover ourselves in satellites, and there is no regime to stop this. No. There is, there is no governance of satellites that say we can't put any more up.
Are
Rod: you suggesting it's difficult to get international agreements for things that
Will: go around the country? So,
Rod: [00:41:00] countries? So, so
Will: SpaceX has done a little bit here to, attempt to make them darker so they don't reflect sun- Yeah, yeah ... like the big, the big point is they're reflecting sunlight. Yeah. So you can do darker coatings or something like that.
but still, like it's, multiple orders of magnitude, more satellites up there, and it will absolutely change how we look up at the sp-
at
the sky above us.
Rod: I read something about this,
just
today.
Vantablack,
blackest paint in
you know, the- Mm ... the blackest
universe.
Will: in the universe. I think it's Vantablack. Vanta...
That's what I meant, Vanta, which is not Fanta. Yeah, the Fanta- Fanta Black
Rod: That's what I meant, Vanta. Which is not
being
Vant- Yeah,
Will: like being
the Nazi version. Yeah,
Rod: and a tad orange.
Will: Yeah.
Rod: Vantablack, they're
they're
talking about they being, you know, the ubiquitous them are talking about coating satellites with it.
Will: that is literally the reason. Like, like if we do that, that is a benefit.
Now, that doesn't solve some of the other problems of satellites, you know, space debris and stuff like that. And- Oh ... and actually, you know, if I'm firing a rocket out there and it's like, and I gotta dodge, like
Rod: how- Jam packed with another one ...
Will: how do I do... But fair. Well, that's someone else's problem, not mine, or a computer's problem.
Maybe you're gonna weather jujitsu them or something like that. But, it's like we're going to a world where suddenly [00:42:00] we're covering- Yeah ... covering our skies, our night skies with satellites, and-
Rod: Also, if, if you want to prevent or black them, getting up there to paint them is
getting
not
there to paint them is not easy.
Will: easy. Indeed.
Rod: Not, not easy.
not
Will: imagine the tradie. It's like, "Oh." "You want
Rod: me to what?
Nah, that's
that's gonna cost you double, mate."
Will: Yeah.
Rod: "Double, mate.
You're working two weeks, I'm thinking
four
at least."
Will: So, look, you can get out to your, I don't know, your local member of SpaceX.
Rod: My, my, my
local
local space member.
Will: Your local space member, and, uh-
Rod: Your orbital representative
Will: I think the space member is available on Love Honey as well. But anyway. It is.
Rod: think
Will: Ugh.
Rod: is available online. Not funny
Will: as well. It, it is. But anyway,
A Little Bit of Science is your little bit of science.
Rod: Yes. Science tainted, maybe we should call it.
Will: Like Bore Taint. Exactly. But Science Taint. Exactly. Science Taint.
Rod: Slightly rubbed by science. But if you like it, if you like this, and, and you did,
what
is it?
Like,
share,
give us nine stars.
Send
Send us an email. Send us an email.
Will: Yes. We love the emails. We, we love the emails.
Rod: Where
where?
Will: Cheers@alittlebitofscience.com.au. [00:43:00] A-L I-T-T-L-E B-I-T O-F S-I-N-C-E
Rod: Cross our toes
off.
Will: dot. .C-O-M.AU. There you go. Got it.
Rod: You forgot to spell dot.
Will: D-O-T. I don't think you spell dot.
spelled
Rod: dot
I
I do.
